Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is expected to end Super Mario’s four-week box office dominance with a $120M debut

Tracking for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has the Marvel sequel defeating The Super Mario Bros. Movie for the top spot.

Rocket Raccoon is building a weapon, and it’s aimed squarely at The Super Mario Bros. Movie. After leveling up at the box office for four weeks straight, Marvel‘s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is expected to knock Mario from the top spot. The anticipated threequel could earn as much as $120 million this weekend, with $110M to $118M at the low end of the spectrum. If the $120M amount holds, the third Guardians film falls between 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy ($94M) and 2017’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146M).

While reviews for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 are trending positively, tracking for the film remains uncertain. Sequels tend to bring fans out in droves, though, in the case of Guardians 3, the hype might not be as potent as you’d think. Typically, tentpole films cost $200M+ to produce. While a $120M launch is good, Guardians 3 must stay strong at the box office to profit significantly.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may be experiencing blowback from Marvel’s previous release, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Critics and fans reacted negatively to the third Ant-Man movie, possibly damaging the momentum and excitement of Marvel’s Phase 5 initiative. Some reactions to Guardians 3 say it’s “the best Marvel movie since Avengers: Endgame,” but that remains to be seen by general audiences. Guardians 3 may slay at the box office if the threequel lives up to the hype, and I hope it does.

Overseas, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 could add $130M to $140M from additional markets, including China. No matter what happens, Guardians 3 will likely beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which has earned over $1.026+ billion worldwide.

Will you be seeing Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 this weekend? Has Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania shaken your confidence in the MCU? How long will it be before Nintendo announces a Super Mario sequel? Will they introduce a Donkey Kong or Legend of Zelda movie before Mario returns to the Mushroom Kingdom for another animated adventure? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.