Box Office Predictions: Turtles and a Megalodon try to bring down Barbenheimer

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench should be no match for the third week of Barbenheimer.

This week sees two new movies looking to take down the dual behemoths that are Barbie and Oppenheimer as the Seth Rogan produced Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and the Jason Statham sequel Meg 2: The Trench hit theaters. The simple fact is that no movie will remove Barbie from her perch atop the charts for a good while. I’d say probably not until at least Gran Turismo on the 25th, although there is no tracking for that movie yet. I don’t think Blue Beetle stands a chance at beating Barbie!

Oppenheimer, first reactions, Christopher Nolan

Second place could be a toss up, even with a sub 40% drop, Oppenheimer should finish around the $30 million mark while Mutant Mayhem is currently projected to do $30 million for its full five day release. However, Mutant Mayhem is getting phenomenal reviews (currently 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, the best reviewed Turtles movie ever with the next highest being the 1990 live action original with a score of 42%.) Those types of reviews combined with how well family fare (with the exception of Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken) has been doing lately, can combine to have this one finish above expectations, but still just below the third week of Oppenheimer. It is still too soon to split up Barbenheimer on the box office charts.

I saw Mutant Mayhem last night and thought it was pretty good, had some genuine laughs and I liked the animation style, but as a child of the 90’s no Turtles movie will ever surpass the first two live action films. And if you haven’t had the chance to see Oppenheimer yet on the big screen, go! It is one of the best movies not just of the year, but ever made. I truly hope that it is the big winner at next years Oscars with Robert Downey Jr being named Best Supporting Actor for giving one of the finest performances I have ever seen. You can check out Tyler Nichols 8/10 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem review here and Eric Walkuski’s 8/10 review for Oppenheimer here (although I’d have given it a 10/10!)

Jason Statham is back for more giant shark action in the trailer for Meg 2: The Trench, directed by Ben Wheatley

That leaves the prehistoric shark sequel Meg 2: The Trench to land safely in fourth place with an opening around $25 million. That is a bit off from the 2018 original’s $45.4 million domestic bow, but that one faced less stiff competition as it went up against the new releases Slender Man, BlacKkKlansman and Dog Days while also facing off against the third weekend of Mission: Impossible- Fallout and the second week of Disney’s Christopher Robin. That one legged out to a respectable $145.4 million domestic with a $530.2 million worldwide gross. I think the sequel will struggle at the domestic box office, but international numbers could salvage it. Of course this is another case of a movie’s budget getting in the way of it actually being successful as it is reported that Meg 2: The Trench cost around $130 million. To put that into perspective: Oppenheimer cost around $100 million.

Fifth place will be another toss up: Will Haunted Mansion suffer a horrific second week drop that puts it out of the top five and allows Sound of Freedom to slide into that spot with another minuscule drop? It is a tough one to call, but I think even with an over 55% decline, Haunted Mansion should still have one more week to claim a top five finish.

Do you plan on heading to theaters? Let us know hat you plan on seeing in the comments section and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we give a brief update on where the box office numbers are heading.


  1. Barbie$65 Million
  2. Oppenheimer$30 Million
  3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem$27 Million
  4. Meg 2: The Trench$25 million
  5. Haunted Mansion$10 Million

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